Local homes sales are in a balanced state despite the lowest April sales numbers since 2001, according to a report by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
“Although April sales were below what’s typical for the month, we continue to see, with a sales-to-active listing ratio of nearly 17 per cent, a balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply in our marketplace,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said in a statement.
“Recent activity has had a stabilizing effect on home prices at the regional level, although pricing can vary depending on area and property type.”
According to the monthly report, homes sales and listings have maintained a consistent pace in recent months, contributing to the balanced conditions.
However, the report noted that Metro Vancouver sales totalled 2,799 in April 2012, a 13.2-per-cent decline compared to the 3,225 sales in April 2011 and a decline of 2.6 per cent compared to the 2,874 sales in March 2012.
April sales were the lowest total for the month in the region since 2001 and 16.9 per cent below the 10-year April sales average of 3,369, the board said in a release.
Metro Vancouver housing market remains balanced despite sharp sales drop: report
Local homes sales are in a balanced state despite the lowest April sales numbers since 2001, according to a report by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
“Although April sales were below what’s typical for the month, we continue to see, with a sales-to-active listing ratio of nearly 17 per cent, a balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply in our marketplace,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said in a statement.
“Recent activity has had a stabilizing effect on home prices at the regional level, although pricing can vary depending on area and property type.”
According to the monthly report, homes sales and listings have maintained a consistent pace in recent months, contributing to the balanced conditions.
However, the report noted that Metro Vancouver sales totalled 2,799 in April 2012, a 13.2-per-cent decline compared to the 3,225 sales in April 2011 and a decline of 2.6 per cent compared to the 2,874 sales in March 2012.
April sales were the lowest total for the month in the region since 2001 and 16.9 per cent below the 10-year April sales average of 3,369, the board said in a release.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 6,056 in April, a 3.6-per-cent increase compared to both March 2012 when 5,843 homes were listed and April 2011 when 5,847 homes were listed for sale.
Last month’s new listing total was 6.7 per cent above the 10-year average for listings in Greater Vancouver for April, the release said.
At 16,538, the total number of homes listed for sale increased 8.5 per cent in April compared to last month and 16 per cent above this time last year.
The benchmark price for all residential properties stood at $683,800, up 3.7 per cent compared to April 2011 and an increase of 2.8 per cent over the last three months.
Sales of detached properties in April 2012 reached 1,126, a decline of 19.7 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in April 2011, although the benchmark price for detached properties increased 6.3 per cent from April 2011 to $1,064,800.
The highest benchmark price in April for a detached home was Vancouver West at $2.27 million, followed by West Vancouver at $1.98 million.
The benchmark price of an apartment increased 1.1 per cent from April 2011 to $375,900, while the price of a townhome increased 1.7 per cent between April 2011 and 2012 to $487,300.
Meanwhile, the Fraser Valley's housing market also showed a drop in sales year-over-year, although not as sharp as in Metro Vancouver.
According to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, there were 1,435 sales processed in April, down five per cent from April 2011, but up slightly from 1,412 sales in March.
In April, the board added seven per cent more new listings compared to one year ago, up to 3,134 from 2,918 last year. That pushed the number of properties for sale to 10,312, the highest level since July 2010.
“To put it in perspective, in the last decade, April 2012 ranked second lowest for sales during that month, while new listings came in at the third highest, meaning it’s a good time to be shopping for a home in the Fraser Valley because selection has only been this extensive twice,” said board president Scott Olson in a statement.
According to the report, the benchmark price for a detached home in the Fraser Valley rose 5.3 per cent in the year, from $547,800 in April 2011 to $576,600 last month.
In April, the price of a townhouse was $318,400, up 1.9 per cent year-over-year, while the price of an apartment increased 0.8 per cent over the same period to $205,800.
OTTAWA, February 8, 2011 — The seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of housing starts was 170,400 units in January, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This is up from 169,000 units in December 2010. According to final figures, actual housing starts for 2010 totalled 189,930 units, with activity moderating towards demographic fundamentals by the final quarter of 2010.
“Housing starts moved slightly higher in January because of an increase in rural starts,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Single-detached and multiple starts showed a moderate decline.”
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 1.7 per cent to 146,900 units in January. Urban multiple starts moderated by 1.5 per cent in January to 82,900 units, while single urban starts moved lower by 2.0 per cent to 64,000 units.
January’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 19.0 per cent in the Prairie Region, by 7.9 per cent in British Columbia, and by 1.0 per cent in Québec. Urban starts increased by 13.3 per cent in Atlantic Canada and by 10.3 per cent in Ontario.
Rural starts2 were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 23,500 units in January.
As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.
More Canadians were on move in 2010 and they were mostly headed West
TORONTO - A new report from the TD Bank suggests that Canadians are taking the phrase "Go West, young man" seriously.
More Canadians were on the move last year as a percentage of the population than any year since 1998, the bank says.
And most were headed West to take advantage of better job prospects and higher standards of living.
The analysis shows 337,000 Canadians migrated within the country's border's last year, 45,000 more than in 2009. The level represents about one per cent of the total population, the highest since 1998.
Except for New Brunswick, only Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia experienced a net inflow of people last year.
And the report predicts that westward bound migration will continue over the next two years, although not up to the levels seen during the resource boom prior to the recession.
In relative terms, Manitoba and Prince Edward Island are losing the most people. Ontario and Quebec will continue to keep shedding numbers, but by a tiny fraction relative to their populations, the bank said.
Real estate market calm expected to follow hectic 2010 in Metro Vancouver
Home sales forecast to increase modestly across B.C. as prices stabilize
VANCOUVER - If there's one sentence to sum up B.C.'s real estate picture in 2011, it's probably "Let's take a breather."
While Metro Vancouver prices rose fairly sharply over the past year, the same wasn't true in the Interior and other parts of the province where prices were flat and sales stalled.
A combination of low interest rates, relatively stable prices throughout the province and a gradually improving economy helped by the 2010 Winter Olympics brought buyers -- especially first-time buyers -- back into the market after a recessionary slump.
Those conditions are expected to continue in 2011, although interest rates are predicted to gradually rise.
That may keep a lid on housing prices, which are also expected to rise a bit, although less than in 2010.
However, there will be no repeat of 2010's price bump.
"When you look at 2010, we saw fewer sales than 2009 [across B.C.]," Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association, said in an interview. "Since [July], we've seen a modest increase in consumer demand."
Muir said he expects the province will see that continue into 2011, although the sales numbers aren't expected to post any records or rise above the 10-year average.
"I'd expect housing sales to be around 80,000 to 82,000 units in 2011. We're likely to see a six-to seven-per-cent increase in housing sales this year compared to last year."
Muir said job growth and rising incomes will underpin demand, although higher interest rates in the second half of the year will partly offset the benefits of more economic activity.
"There will be a much more gradual increase in consumer demand and less volatility. There will be more stable market conditions this year."
Robyn Adamache, senior market analyst for Metro Vancouver with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., said in an interview that she doesn't see any huge changes this year over 2010.
"We're expecting a slight increase in sales, about five to six per cent, for 2011.
"For 2010, we were around 31,000 sales.
"For 2011, we're expecting 33,000 sales."
However, Adamache said Metro Vancouver should see much less price growth in 2011.
"In 2010, we saw a 14-percent increase in prices.
"We're calling for a three-percent increase in 2011."
Adamache said she expects that mortgage rates will creep up later in 2011, although not dramatically. "So, that will put a bit of a damper on sales."
Tsur Somerville, director of the centre for urban economics and real estate at the University of B.C.'s Sauder School of Business, said he doesn't like forecasting the future, but nevertheless believes that 2011's real estate picture will be largely determined by the speed of the recovery and the Bank of Canada's action on interest rates -- and how that reflects on mortgage rates.
Ron Antalek, a realtor with ReMax Ridge Meadows Realty, said in an interview that he's seeing an uptick in buyers who believe interest rates are heading north.
He believes there will be a modest increase in both pricing and demand this year.
"The vast majority of buyers are convinced that prices won't decline and that interest rates will rise.
"So, they feel their investment is safe.
"Sales are picking up." Mike McDougall recently took possession of a new detached home in Maple Ridge after moving to B.C. from Alberta.
"Hopefully, it was a good time to purchase," McDougall said in an interview.
"From what I hear, it was. I think there's still potential for rates to go up."
McDougall, who moved into his new home on Jan. 12 with his wife and two small children, said he was also comfortable with the price he paid.
B.C. cities, including Victoria, are world-class in their lack of affordability, story and photos
Homes are "severely unaffordable" in all four of the B.C. cities that were included in a 325-city international survey of housing costs, and Vancouver's affordability score was the third-worst of all. The average home in Vancouver, according to data from the third quarter of last year, cost $602,000 -- or 9.5. times the $63,100 median income of households in the city, according to the survey results released Monday by the Winnipeg-based Frontier Centre of Public Policy. Only Sydney, Australia, at 9.6 times the median income, and Hong Kong, at 11.4 times, scored worse.
With their housing prices quite a bit lower but their incomes a little lower, too, Victoria, Abbotsford and Kelowna were -- in that order -- uncomfortably close to Vancouver's 323rd-place finish in the international rankings.
Victoria's average price of $430,000 was 7.1 times the median household income of $60,900, resulting in a ranking of 297th out of 325. Abbotsford's $402,000 average price made it 6.5 times the median household income of $62,300 and 297th in the rankings. And Kelowna finished 283rd with a median income of $57,500 that was 5.9 times the median price of $57,500.
The study pins the "severely unaffordable" label on any city with a multiplier of more than five -- about 75 of the 325 studied, including Montreal and Toronto, but nowhere else in any part of Canada except B.C.
For a housing market to be rated as "affordable" the ratio of price to income can't exceed three times. And in nearly half the 35 Canadian cities surveyed, it is either lower or very close to that mark. In Edmonton, for example, the multiplier is just 3.5, although its low figure is in part thanks to the very high median income of $88,800. And in Winnipeg, where people earn just a little less than in Vancouver, it's 3.2.
The researchers who conducted the survey point out that you can't blame things such as interest rates, or the federal mortgage rules that have recently been in the news for B.C.'s worrisomely high score. These factors are the same everywhere across Canada, yet many other Canadian cities remain affordable. For example, it costs just 2.3 times the median income to buy an average home in Fredericton, a small government-dependent provincial capital where incomes are nearly equal to those in unaffordable Victoria.
So the policy factors that drive prices too high in relation to residents' incomes must be closer to home. David Seymour, a senior policy analyst for the Frontier Centre, and his collaborator on the study, consulting demographer Wendell Cox of St. Louis, finger "politically inflated land costs."
"These land prices include the cost increasing influence of land supply restrictions (such as urban growth boundaries), excessive infrastructure fees and other overly strict land use regulations," they write.
In other words, the problem is not only in Vancouver, where everybody knows housing costs too much, but also in Victoria, Abbotsford, Kelowna and, almost certainly, in all of the other Lower Mainland cities that weren't surveyed. And this problem is world-class, worse here than in most cities in many other developed countries.
But the solution, we ought not forget, can only be local.
Email