Local homes sales are in a balanced state despite the lowest April sales numbers since 2001, according to a report by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
“Although April sales were below what’s typical for the month, we continue to see, with a sales-to-active listing ratio of nearly 17 per cent, a balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply in our marketplace,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said in a statement.
“Recent activity has had a stabilizing effect on home prices at the regional level, although pricing can vary depending on area and property type.”
According to the monthly report, homes sales and listings have maintained a consistent pace in recent months, contributing to the balanced conditions.
However, the report noted that Metro Vancouver sales totalled 2,799 in April 2012, a 13.2-per-cent decline compared to the 3,225 sales in April 2011 and a decline of 2.6 per cent compared to the 2,874 sales in March 2012.
April sales were the lowest total for the month in the region since 2001 and 16.9 per cent below the 10-year April sales average of 3,369, the board said in a release.
Vancouver home prices fall for fifth consecutive month
OTTAWA — Homes prices edged down 0.2 per cent in February from the month before but were still 6.1 per cent higher than a year ago, according to a well-watched housing index.
The month-over-month decline was the third such retreat in the past four months for the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index, released Wednesday, which measures price changes for repeat sales of single-family homes.
In January, prices rose 0.1 per cent.
Teranet's report showed prices falling from the previous month in six of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed.
In Canada's two hottest real-estate markets, prices in Vancouver fell 0.3 per cent, the fifth consecutive decline, while prices in Toronto rose by just 0.1 per cent. On a yearly basis, however, Toronto prices were 10 per cent higher.
Nationally, prices were 6.1 per cent higher than a year ago. In January, prices were 6.5 per cent higher.
The data is likely to show up on the radar of Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, who has repeatedly warned that Canadians are piling on too much debt as they buy homes whose prices keep rising.
At a House of Commons finance committee meeting Tuesday, Carney warned that house prices in relation to income levels are now running 35 per cent above historical norms.
Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that seasonally adjusted sales in March rose 1.6 per cent from year-earlier levels, although the national average home price declined 0.5 per cent to to $369,677.
"It is a fact that according to CREA (the Canadian Real Estate Association) data for March, five of the 11 markets covered were rather favourable to sellers (Toronto, Hamilton, Winnipeg, Halifax and Quebec City). Overall, the Canadian market is nevertheless balanced," said National Bank senior economist Marc Pinsonneault.
Metropolitan area % change m/m / % change y/y
Calgary / -0.6 % / +1.3 %
Edmonton / -1.0 % / +1.1 %
Halifax / +0.4 % / +2.3 %
Hamilton / -0.8 % / +7.5 %
Montreal / +0.2 % / +4.4 %
Ottawa / -0.4 % / +4.6 %
Quebec / +1.6 % / +5.6 %
Toronto / 0.1 % / +10.0 %
Vancouver / -0.3 % / +6.2 %
Victoria / -1.1 % / -1.7 %
Winnipeg / +0.2 % / +8.2 %
National Composite / -0.2 % / +6.1 %
Source: Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index
Greater Vancouver housing market trends near long-term averages as spring market approaches
Closer alignment between home buyer and seller activity helped bring greater balance to the Greater Vancouver housing market in February.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,545 on the MLS® system in February 2012. This represents a 61.4 per cent increase compared to the 1,577 sales recorded in January 2012, a decline of 17.8 per cent compared to the 3,097 sales in February 2011 and a 2.9 per cent increase from the 2,473 home sales in February 2010.
February sales in Greater Vancouver were the third lowest February total in the region since 2002, though only 151 sales below the 10-year average. “With a sales-to-active-listings ratio of over 18 per cent, we see fairly balanced conditions in our marketplace as we move into the traditionally busier spring season,” Rosario Setticasi, REBGV president said.
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,552 in February 2012. This represents a 2.5 per cent decline compared to February 2011 when 5,693 properties were listed, and a 3.5 per cent decline compared to January 2012 when 5,756 homes were added to the MLS® in Greater Vancouver. Last month’s new listing count was the second highest February total in Greater Vancouver since 1996.
At 14,055, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 12 per cent in February compared to last month and increased 17.9 per cent from this time last year. “Region-wide we’ve seen relative stability in home prices over the last six months, but it’s important to do your homework and consult your REALTOR® because pricing can vary considerably depending on the neighbourhood and property type,” Setticasi said.
The MLS® HPI benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver currently sits at $670,900, up 6 per cent compared to February 2011 and an increase of 0.9 per cent compared to January 2012. The benchmark price for all residential properties in the Lower Mainland is $601,300, an increase of 5.5 per cent compared to February 2011.
Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in February 2012 reached 1,101, a decline of 21.5 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in February 2011, and a 12 per cent increase from the 983 units sold in February 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 10.5 per cent from February 2011 to $1,042,900.
Sales of apartment properties reached 1,020 in February 2012, a decline of 15.4 per cent compared to the 1,206 sales in February 2011, and a decrease of 5 per cent compared to the 1,074 sales in February 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 2.8 per cent from February 2011 to $373,300.
Townhome property sales in February 2012 totalled 424, a decline of 13.3 per cent compared to the 489 sales in February 2011, and a 1.9 per cent increase from the 416 townhome properties sold in February 2010. The benchmark price of a townhome unit increased 0.7 per cent between February 2011 and 2012 to $472,800.
Feb 6 (Reuters) - Canadian housing prices rose in January on a monthly basis for the first time in three months, led by gains in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver, according to a report from the Canadian Real Estate Association.
The newly launch MLS Home Price Index, which monitors housing prices in five major urban markets, rose 0.27 percent in January from a month earlier. It was up 5.2 percent from the previous year's level.
"While home prices remain up compared to one year ago, price growth from one month to the next has been slowing, causing year-over-year gains to shrink, and prices are generally expected to continue to stabilize this year," Gary Morse, the industry group's president, said in a statement.
General price declines in B.C. make province 'nation's new weak spot,' according to report
Canada's housing market is not a bubble, it's a balloon. And unlike the catastrophic decline the U.S. housing market experienced in 2008, the market in Canada will deflate slowly rather than pop, according to a report by BMO Capital Markets.
The sole possible exception is Vancouver, where the number of unoccupied condominiums is high due to building the Olympic Village, economists Sherry Cooper and Sal Guatieri wrote in "Will Canada's Housing Boom Forge On, Fizzle Out, or Flame Out?"
But generally, the report says that despite rising household debt, low interest rates and rising home prices, it is unlikely that a sudden correction will take place.
"The main take-away is that the national housing market appears some-what pricey, but is far removed from bubble territory," the report stated.
It compares average resale prices with median family incomes and finds the ratio is 4.9 nationally, compared to 3.2 a decade ago.
In Vancouver, though, where house prices have gone up 159 per cent in the last 10 years - compared to 104 per cent nationally - the ratio of price to income is 10, nearly double what it was a decade ago, the report said. Victoria is also high, at 5.7, but not as high as Toronto, which has a price to income ratio of 6.7.
Montreal has also seen prices rise dramatically - by 153 per cent - and its price-to-income ratio double, but that ratio remains low at 4.5.
Despite rising home prices in most of Canada's major cities, the growth doesn't seem to be excessive, the report said. But elevated valuations could lead to trouble in the event of a shock.
For example, if interest rates were to spike by about four percentage points, the affordability of homes would quickly drop throughout the country. A severe recession would also affect affordability.
But the chance of either of those events happening is unlikely, the report authors stated. Also, except for a few markets, the national housing boom has already cooled.
And British Columbia is now "the nation's new weak spot, with prices generally declining," the report said.
Some of that decline reflects fewer sales of high-end homes.
"[But] some real underlying softness is at play, and will likely continue until valuations improve," the report stated.
Tsur Somerville, director for the Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate at the Sauder School of Business at UBC, said BMO's report is one of many predicting slight drops or slight increases in the housing market rather than a major correction.
"The kinds of things you need to get major corrections, like oversupply or radical change in the financing environment, just aren't there," Somerville said.
And just because the overall market will be flat, it doesn't mean that certain portions of it - such as areas that have had higher run-ups in prices over the past few years - aren't in for a correction, he said.
Helmut Pastrick, chief economist with Central 1 Credit Union, believes that while there may be a soft landing at some point in the future, it won't be in 2012.
"The market is holding up generally well and it looks like 2012 is going to be fairly similar to 2011 in terms of overall unit sales," Pastrick said. "Housing prices will go up by some amount, sales will also increase by a small amount."
And while the economy isn't booming, it is growing, interest rates are low and there is job growth, he said.
"So the conditions to me aren't ripe for a correction."
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Canada's banking regulator fears that Canadian lenders are loosening standards on mortgages that are similar to U.S. subprime loans, posing an "emerging risk" to financial institutions.
Banks and other lenders are becoming "increasingly liberal" with mort-gages and home-equity credit lines that don't require individuals to prove their...
TD Financial Group's chief economist on New Low Mortgage Rates
Canada's big banks offered homebuyers a big fat incentive last week when, led by the Bank of Montreal, most dropped their five-year fixed mortgage rates to an unheard of 2.99 per cent. Like the failing Detroit auto industry of the early 2000s, with its zero per cent financing, no-money-down offers, Canada's banks appear willing to sacrifice some profit to keep the mortgage market booming. They're still making money—and certainly won't go bankrupt like two of the Big Three automakers did—but there is a similar whiff of desperation here at a time when the housing market appears to be cooling. Even in once hot markets like Calgary, prices have flattened.
These ultra low rates are bad news for Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, who've been warning Canadians for years to stop taking on record debt loads in this era of easy money. BMO's rate does come with a few catches, like a maximum 25-year payment period. But that doesn't mean buyers won't find themselves in trouble five years from now if rates rise.
Maybe the bigger concern is what happens if the housing market really does head south, and what that means for the Canadian economy. Over the past decade, construction was the second-fastest growing industry, creating one million jobs. It now accounts for an incredible one-tenth of Canada's GDP. Rising house prices have also made Canadians feel richer and insulated from economic troubles. As the U.S. showed, when housing is stripped from the equation, things can quickly go from bad to worse. Record-low mortgage rates might help keep the economy chugging along, but let's just hope we're not now running on fumes.
A strong international demand for bonds from Canada's biggest banks is trickling through the system and pushing mortgage rates to record lows at the consumer level. The Bank of Montreal moved its five-year fixed mortgage rate to 2.99 per cent late Thursday — the lowest posted rate from a major bank in Canadian history. BMO announced the rate cut late on Thursday and TD followed suit by lowering their four-year fixed rate to 2.99 per cent on Friday afternoon. BMO's offer, which ends Jan. 25, states that lump sum payments are limited to 10 per cent of the principal each year. The mortgage is also based on a 25-year amortization period. TD's offer is open until Feb. 29, 2012. It's also for a four-year term, much less common than the standard five-year. Other banks are expected to follow suit. On Wednesday, Toronto-Dominion Bank reduced its posted six-year rate 132 basis points to 3.79 per cent and lowered the posted seven-year fixed rate 91 basis points to 3.99 per cent.
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