Selection broadens and demand eases to kick off 2012 in the Greater Vancouver housing market
VANCOUVER, B.C. – February 6, 2012 – Greater Vancouver home sellers were more active than buyers in January and overall home prices, according to the new MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI), continued to experience more stability and less fluctuation compared to the beginning of 2011.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 1,577 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in January 2012.
This represents a 4.9 per cent decrease compared to the 1,658 sales recorded in December 2011, a decrease of 13.3 per cent compared to the 1,819 sales in January 2011 and an 18 per cent decline from the 1,923 home sales in January 2010.
January sales in Greater Vancouver were the second lowest January total in the region since 2002, though only 146 sales below the 10-year average.
“We’re seeing trends emerge in our market that favour buyers, such as increased selection and more stability in pricing compared to this time last year,” Rosario Setticasi, REBGV president said. “Last month’s activity tells us that competition amongst home buyers was reduced in January, which means that individuals looking to purchase a home had more time to do their homework, consult with their REALTOR®, and make a decision.”
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,756 in January. This represents a 19.9 per cent increase compared to the 4,801 new listings reported in January 2011, and a 253.3 per cent increase compared to the 1,629 new listings reported in December 2011.
Last month’s new listing count was the highest January total in Greater Vancouver since 1995.
The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the Greater Vancouver MLS® is 12,544, a 12.5 per cent increase compared to December 2011 and an increase of 20.2 per cent compared to January 2011.
Today marks the launch of the MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI), the best and purest way of determining price trends in the housing market. The MLS® HPI was pioneered by six founding partners: the real estate boards of Calgary, Fraser Valley, Greater Montreal, Greater Vancouver, and Toronto and the Canadian Real Estate Association. The partners contracted with Altus Group to develop the MLS® HPI which measures home price trends in the five major markets serviced by those boards.
The new index replaces the MLSLink Housing Price Index, which had been used by Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley REALTORS® since the mid 1990s. MLS® HPI statistics should not be compared with previous MLSLink HPI statistics.
“The MLS® HPI is a national collaboration intended to give the public a more reliable and comprehensive tool to understand home price trends across the country,” Setticasi said.
The MLS® HPI benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver currently sits at $660,600, up 5.7 per cent compared to January 2011 and down 0.1 per cent compared to December 2011. The MLS® HPI also tracks home prices across the Lower Mainland.
The benchmark price for all residential properties in the Lower Mainland is $593,300, an increase of 5 per cent compared to January 2011.
Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in January 2012 reached 659, a decline of 16.9 per cent from the 793 detached sales recorded in January 2011, and a 6.5 per cent decrease from the 705 units sold in January 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.3 per cent from January 2011 to $1,034,700.
Sales of apartment properties reached 657 in January 2012, a decline of 7.9 per cent compared to the 713 sales in January 2011, and a decrease of 26.3 per cent compared to the 891 sales in January 2010.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 2.4 per cent from...
General price declines in B.C. make province 'nation's new weak spot,' according to report
Canada's housing market is not a bubble, it's a balloon. And unlike the catastrophic decline the U.S. housing market experienced in 2008, the market in Canada will deflate slowly rather than pop, according to a report by BMO Capital Markets.
The sole possible exception is Vancouver, where the number of unoccupied condominiums is high due to building the Olympic Village, economists Sherry Cooper and Sal Guatieri wrote in "Will Canada's Housing Boom Forge On, Fizzle Out, or Flame Out?"
But generally, the report says that despite rising household debt, low interest rates and rising home prices, it is unlikely that a sudden correction will take place.
"The main take-away is that the national housing market appears some-what pricey, but is far removed from bubble territory," the report stated.
It compares average resale prices with median family incomes and finds the ratio is 4.9 nationally, compared to 3.2 a decade ago.
In Vancouver, though, where house prices have gone up 159 per cent in the last 10 years - compared to 104 per cent nationally - the ratio of price to income is 10, nearly double what it was a decade ago, the report said. Victoria is also high, at 5.7, but not as high as Toronto, which has a price to income ratio of 6.7.
Montreal has also seen prices rise dramatically - by 153 per cent - and its price-to-income ratio double, but that ratio remains low at 4.5.
Despite rising home prices in most of Canada's major cities, the growth doesn't seem to be excessive, the report said. But elevated valuations could lead to trouble in the event of a shock.
For example, if interest rates were to spike by about four percentage points, the affordability of homes would quickly drop throughout the country. A severe recession would also affect affordability.
But the chance of either of those events happening is unlikely, the report authors stated. Also, except for a few markets, the national housing boom has already cooled.
And British Columbia is now "the nation's new weak spot, with prices generally declining," the report said.
Some of that decline reflects fewer sales of high-end homes.
"[But] some real underlying softness is at play, and will likely continue until valuations improve," the report stated.
Tsur Somerville, director for the Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate at the Sauder School of Business at UBC, said BMO's report is one of many predicting slight drops or slight increases in the housing market rather than a major correction.
"The kinds of things you need to get major corrections, like oversupply or radical change in the financing environment, just aren't there," Somerville said.
And just because the overall market will be flat, it doesn't mean that certain portions of it - such as areas that have had higher run-ups in prices over the past few years - aren't in for a correction, he said.
Helmut Pastrick, chief economist with Central 1 Credit Union, believes that while there may be a soft landing at some point in the future, it won't be in 2012.
"The market is holding up generally well and it looks like 2012 is going to be fairly similar to 2011 in terms of overall unit sales," Pastrick said. "Housing prices will go up by some amount, sales will also increase by a small amount."
And while the economy isn't booming, it is growing, interest rates are low and there is job growth, he said.
"So the conditions to me aren't ripe for a correction."
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Canada's banking regulator fears that Canadian lenders are loosening standards on mortgages that are similar to U.S. subprime loans, posing an "emerging risk" to financial institutions.
Banks and other lenders are becoming "increasingly liberal" with mort-gages and home-equity credit lines that don't require individuals to prove their...
The country's smallest rental suites are unveiled in Vancouver, but demonstrators disrupt the news conference, demanding access to housing.
A Vancouver developer has unveiled 30 "micro-lofts," which are under 300 square feet in size and are touted as the smallest self-contained furnished rental apartments in Canada.
They are in a newly renovated building at 18 West Hastings Street, across from Save-On Meats in Vancouver's Downtown Eastside and were displayed Monday. The suites, which range in size from 226 to 291 square feet, go for an average of $850 per month, including cable and internet. "I was looking for an affordable living space ... and the suite was perfect," said Lia Cosco, one of the building's tenants. "The unique allocation of space and the design concepts make the small space very inviting and comfortable to live in."
While the suites may seem microscopic to some, the developer says the units maximize the square footage by using built-in pull-down wall beds, folding tables and compact appliances. 'This is a homelessness strategy'
The city, along with developers Reliance Properties and ITC Construction Group, are billing the suites as "an affordable and much needed non-subsidized rental housing opportunity in downtown Vancouver."
However, that description doesn't sit well with a handful of protesters who stormed the unveiling on Monday.
"I don't understand how this is part of an affordable housing strategy," said demonstrator Ivan Drury. "This is not an affordable housing strategy. This is a homelessness strategy." The project is in a previously abandoned building, which had been operating as a single room occupancy (SRO) hotel. Protesters are calling on the city to stop converting former SROs into brand new apartments, which are being marketed at a significantly higher cost. However, Coun. Kerry Jang defended the project, maintaining it does fit in with the city's affordable housing strategy.
"Mixed neighborhoods work best," he said. "It's because some people bring in the money, they live in these places [and] they end up subsidizing, keeping the businesses open."
Balanced real estate market prevailed through much of 2011
REBGV Stats December 2011
The 2011 Greater Vancouver housing market began with heightened demand in regional hot spots and concluded with greater balance between seller supply and buyer demand.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that total sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in 2011 reached 32,390, a 5.9 per cent increase from the 30,595 sales recorded in 2010, and a 9.2 per cent decrease from the 35,669 residential sales in 2009. Last year’s home sale total was 6.3 per cent below the ten-year average for annual Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales in the region.
The number of residential properties listed for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver increased 2.7 per cent in 2011 to 59,549 compared to the 58,009 properties listed in 2010. Looking back further, last year’s total represents a 12.8 per cent increase compared to the 52,869 residential properties listed in 2009. Last year’s listing total was 11.1 per cent above the ten-year average for annual Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) property listings in the region.
“It was a relatively balanced year for the real estate market in Greater Vancouver with listing totals slightly above historical norms and sale numbers slightly below,” Rosario Setticasi, REBGV president said.
Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,658 in December 2011, a decrease of 12.7 per cent from the 1,899 sales recorded in December 2010 and a 29.7 per cent decline compared to November 2011 when 2,360 home sales occurred.
More broadly, last month’s residential sales represent a 34.1 per cent decrease over the 2,515 residential sales in December 2009, a 79.4 per cent increase compared to December 2008’s 924 sales, and a 12.6 per cent decrease compared to the 1,897 sales in December 2007.
The overall residential benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for Greater Vancouver increased 7.6 per cent to $621,674 between Decembers 2010 and 2011. However, prices have decreased 1.5 per cent since hitting a peak of $630,921 in June 2011.
“Our market remained in a balanced state for most of the year, although higher levels of demand for detached properties in the region’s largest communities caused prices in certain areas to rise higher than others,” Setticasi said. “For example, the benchmark price of a single-family detached home experienced double-digit increases in nine areas within the region over the last 12 months.”
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,629 in December 2011. This represents a 4.1 per cent decline compared to the 1,699 units listed in December 2010 and a 49.4 per cent decline compared to November 2011 when 3,222 properties were listed.
Sales of detached properties in December 2011 reached 630, a decrease of 18.1 per cent from the 769 detached sales recorded in December 2010, and a 30.2 per cent decrease from the 902 units sold in December 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.2 per cent from December 2010 to $887,471.
Sales of apartment properties reached 774 in December 2011, a decline of 4.6 per cent compared to the 811 sales in December 2010, and a decrease of 32.9 per cent compared to the 1,154 sales in December 2009.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 3.7 per cent from December 2010 to $401,396.
Attached property sales in December 2011 totalled 254, a decline of 20.4 per cent compared to the 319 sales in December 2010, and a 44.7 per cent decrease from the 459 attached properties sold in December 2009. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 4.2 per cent between December 2010 and 2011 to $511,499.
The B.C. government has raised the threshold for homeowner property grant to $1.285 million to accommodate rising property values.
The news comes as hundreds of thousands of annual property assessments are being prepared for B.C. property owners by the government. Last year, the threshold was $1.15 million. The grant effectively reduces the property tax paid by most B.C. homeowners by up to $1,045.
Every year the province adjusts the grant to ensure 95.5 per cent of homeowners receive the full amount of the grant. Those with homes above the threshold may still be eligible for part of the grant.
"The homeowner grant provides a maximum reduction in residential property taxes on principal residences of $570 in the Capital, Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley regional districts and $770 elsewhere in the province," said a statement issued by the government on Tuesday.
"An additional grant of $275 is available to those who are age 65 or over, permanently disabled or a veteran of certain wars,."
"We continue to see challenging economic times around the world. By maintaining the homeowner grant, we continue to help families with the costs of owning their homes," said Finance Minister Kevin Falcon in the statement.
The grant is only available to Canadian citizens and to landed immigrants who normally reside in B.C.
REGIONAL HOUSING MARKETS: A YEAR IN REVIEW AND A LOOK AHEAD
Gradual unwinding of the over-valuation in house prices across the country
Highlights
As the year draws to a close, we conclude that the Canadian housing market put forth a respectable showing. Annual price gains are estimated at 7.5% in 2011 and sales’ growth ought to come in positive as well, but at a much more modest pace of 2.2%.
Behind the headline figure, we have seen gains in prices and sales activity decelerate in recent months. Some of the underlying factors include tighter insured mortgage financing rules and weakened confidence related to the stability of the economic recovery. Helping cushion the impact of these negative forces has been the persistence of low mortgage rates.
We believe that the average Canadian home price is over-valued by roughly 10%. Metrics like price to income, price to rent, and affordability all support this conclusion. We expect that the price excess will gradually unwind over the next two years in light of a softening in employment conditions in 2012 followed by higher interest rates in 2013.
In contrast to the resale market, starts continue to come in well above expectations. The strength witnessed over the last few years has been driven exclusively by the multi-residential category. Consistent with weaker resale markets, we expect new starts to trend toward 170,000-180,000 units in the 2012-13 period.
In addition to our national perspective, we provide an in-depth forecast of twelve major markets. While no urban center will be immune to the macroeconomic and interest rate headwinds, Calgary and Edmonton are likely to do better than the rest. By contrast, a larger-than-average price and sales correction looks to be in store for both Toronto and Vancouver.
Homebuyers came out in the early part of 2011 to take advantage of record-low interest rates and to beat out changes to new insured mortgage financing rules. With Canadians bringing forward their purchases and national job gains tapering off since the autumn, the past few months have recorded more modest price and sales gains. In all, 2011 put forth a very respectable showing with price appreciation clocking in at an estimated 7.5% and sales growth also positive, but at a more modest 2.2%. At around 190,000 units, housing starts also continued to come in above long-run averages.
Looking ahead, we anticipate a tug-of-war action to take hold in the Canadian real estate market. At one of the rope is the magnetism of low interest rates; at the other end are subdued prospects for economic, income and employment growth. Ultimately, we expect the economic side of the equation to win out over the near-term. In particular, the first half of 2012 is likely to be characterized by ongoing confidence-sapping events in Europe, global financial turbulence and slowing world economic growth.
While housing activity is expected to do somewhat better in the second half of the year, as external clouds start to dissipate, rising Canadian interest rates in 2013 should erect the next road block in the way of housing markets. Overall, we expect sales to record annual average declines of 2.4% and 3.5% in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Prices are poised to suffer a similar fate – annual average declines of 1.9% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013. Starts should dip to an average 170,000 to 180,000 units in 2012-13. Collectively, these adjustments will gradually erase the over-valuation in the marketplace.
While no urban center will be immune from economic volatility and higher prevailing interest rates, some regions are expected to do better than others over the next two years. Among the twelve major markets profiled in this report, Calgary and Edmonton ought to lead the pack. Solid economic fundamentals and the absence of a recent run-up in prices support our call. Toronto and Vancouver do not appear to be as lucky – we have them experiencing a greater-than-average correction in both sales and prices...
Historically normal activity keeps the Greater Vancouver housing market in a balanced state
The Greater Vancouver housing market saw relatively typical home sale and listing activity in November.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties on the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) reached 2,360 in November. This represents a 5.9 per cent decline compared to the 2,509 sales in November 2010 and a 1.9 per cent increase compared to the 2,317 sales recorded in October 2011.
Looking back further, last month’s residential sales total is 5.8 per cent below the ten-year average for sales in November.
“The pace of home listings entering the market eased slightly in November, compared to recent months, while sale levels remained fairly normal for this time of year,” Rosario Setticasi, REBGV president said. “November activity helped put our market firmly in balanced territory.”
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totaled 3,222 in November. This represents a 26.3 per cent decline compared to the 4,374 new listings reported in October 2011, but a 6.3 per cent increase compared to November 2010 when 3,030 properties were listed for sale on the MLS®.
Looking back further, last month’s new listing total is 2.1 per cent above the ten-year average for November.
The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the Greater Vancouver MLS® sits at 14,090, a decline of 9 per cent compared to October 2011 but an increase of 13 per cent when compared to this time last year.
The MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 7.2 per cent to $622,087 in November 2011 from $580,080 in November 2010.
Since reaching a peak in June of $630,921, the benchmark price for all residential properties in the region has declined 1.4 per cent.
Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in November 2011 reached 916, a decrease of 12.8 per cent from the 1,050 detached sales recorded in November 2010, and a 21.3 per cent decrease from the 1,164 units sold in November 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.4 per cent from November 2010 to $890,204.
Sales of apartment properties reached 1,000 in November 2011, a 4.9 per cent decrease compared to the 1,052 sales in November 2010, and a decrease of 28.4 per cent compared to the 1,396 sales in November 2009. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 2.7 per cent from November 2010 to $399,686.
Attached property sales in November 2011 totaled 444, a 9.1 per cent increase compared to the 407 sales in November 2010, and a 15.1 per cent decrease from the 523 attached properties sold in November 2009. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 4.5 per cent between November 2010 and 2011 to $510,960.
Metro Vancouver real estate prices up 7.5 per cent year over year: report
New listings are sharply higher than a year ago, but much lower than September
Benchmark home prices in Metro Vancouver have increased 7.5 per cent to $622,955 in October 2011 from $579,349 in October 2010, according to the latest monthly report from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
However, since reaching a peak in June of $630,921, the benchmark price — that of a typical home — for all residential properties in the region has declined 1.3 per cent.
The report also said that sales of detached properties in October reached 974, about the same as October 2010.
As well, new listings for all properties totalled 4,374 in October, an 18.3-per-cent increase compared to October 2010, when 3,698 properties were listed for sale, and a 23-per-cent decrease compared to the 5,680 new listings in September 2011.
The total number of properties listed for sale now sits at 15,377, 9.3 per cent higher than the 14,075 properties listed for sale during the same period last year.
Meanwhile, the benchmark price of a single family detached home in the Fraser Valley in October was $530,335, an increase of 4.9 per cent compared to $505,759 in October 2010 and on par with the price in September, according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.
The caliber of Metro Vancouver’s existing housing stock is a big reason average home prices soared 128 per cent from 2000 to 2010, from $296,000 to $676,000, according to a Re/Max report released Monday.
“While supply and demand, population growth and rising foreign investment, have been the main underpinnings behind exceptional gains, revitalization — amid an aging housing stock — and newer construction instruction are largely underestimated factors propping up housing values in Canada’s real estate hot spot,” the real estate company’s Housing Evolution Report concluded. “Just over one-quarter of Vancouver’s owned housing stock was constructed prior to 1970, while 44 per cent was built before 1980.
“With a significant proportion of older homes, renovation spending has been on the rise throughout the past decade — in tandem with home sales — as owners, vendors and purchasers breathe new life into Vancouver’s existing housing.”
Infill housing also boosted values as smaller homes on valuable lots were torn down to build large, upper-end homes.
The report cited the region’s building boom, with a strong focus on condo construction and small-lot subdivisions.
“The upswing is captured by the total value of residential building permits over the past decade — at $35 billion. Permit values climbed consistently from 2001 – 2007, cresting in 2007, before sliding back during the 2008/2009 recession. Yet, the subsequent rebound was quite impressive, as the value of building permits nearly doubled against year-ago levels in 2010, as builders got back to business.” Condos now represent one in every two sales, with an average price of $457,887.
“Condominiums are undeniably the biggest game changer for real estate over the past decade, especially in British Columbia and Alberta, where they comprise 25 to 50 per cent of residential sales,” noted Elton Ash, regional executive vice-president, Re/Max of Western Canada. Prices are continuing to rise and will continue doing so, the report added.
“Average price in Greater Vancouver currently hovers at $791,332 — up 18 per cent year-to-date — and is expected to continue its ascent in the months ahead.”
Over 26,000 homes have sold so far this year, an increase of nine per cent.
Three B.C. urban areas were addressed in the Re/Max report, which concluded that Kelowna saw the greatest average price increase over the decade, rising 156 per cent from $188,000 in 2010 to $481,000 in 2010, with new construction the biggest factor.
However, today’s average Kelowna price has dropped slightly to $475,250. “The market remains off peak levels, but confidence is slowly returning, and listings are starting to decline.”
For Victoria, the average price climbed 123.5 per cent from $225,731 to $504,561.
Nationally, the value of a Canadian home has risen 106 per cent since 2000, from $163,951 to $339,030 in 2010, with 10 of the 16 urban markets surveyed experiencing increases of more than 100 per cent. The highest was Regina (173 per cent) and the lowest, London-St. Thomas (68 per cent).
The report said that the value of residential building permits issued nationally in the 10 years was $340 billion, while $450 billion was spent on renovations.
A new report suggests that the average home value has doubled in most of Canada's big cities since the millennium.
Re/Max says it examined the value of homes in 16 major markets across Canada, calculating the changes that occurred from 2000 to 2010.
The real estate organization found that an average home in these markets was worth $339,030 as of last year, more than double the average price of $...163,951 in 2000.
Re/Max says that Canadians have spent an estimated $450 billion on renovations over the decade, while more than $340 billion in residential building permits were issued.
This heavy-duty investment has helped build value in individual properties while an increasing number of people looking for housing has helped spur demand.
"They key to Canada's housing evolution has been an increase in population," says Michael Polzler, the executive vice president of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada Inc.
With further sharp population growth expected in the years ahead, Polzler says that portends "continued investment and continued growth in Canadian housing values."
The hundreds of billions poured into rejuvenating homes and properties across the country have also created new trends in urban neighborhoods, Re/Max says in its report.
In cities where space is scarce, residents are increasingly seeing small properties snapped up and turned into new structures, whether personal residences, townhomes or high-rise apartment buildings.
Condominiums have also become more popular and more varied in terms of what they can offer. Re/Max says buyers can now choose from mixed-use residential, live-work studios, lofts, townhomes and condo bungalows in major markets.
The 16 markets that Re/Max studied were: Greater Vancouver; Victoria; Kelowna, B.C.; Edmonton; Calgary; Regina; Saskatoon; Winnipeg; Ottawa; Greater Toronto; Hamilton-Burlington; Kitchener-Waterloo in Ontario; London, Ont.; Saint John, N.B.; Halifax-Dartmouth and St. John's. No markets from Quebec or the Territories were included in the Re/Max analysis.
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