Anna Asi, M.A.

Greater Vancouver housing market maintains a steady spring pace

VANCOUVER, B.C. – May 2, 2012 – Home sale and listing activity has maintained a consistent pace on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Greater Vancouver in recent months, which has helped create balanced conditions for the region’s housing market.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,799 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April 2012. This represents a 13.2 per cent decline compared to the 3,225 sales recorded in April 2011 and a decline of 2.6 per cent compared to the 2,874 sales in March 2012. April sales were the lowest total for the month in the region since 2001 and 16.9 per cent below the 10-year April sales average of 3,369.

“Although April sales were below what’s typical for the month, we continue to see, with a sales-to-active listing ratio of nearly 17 per cent, a balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply in our marketplace,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said.
 
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 6,056 in April 2012. This represents a 3.6 per cent increase compared to both March 2012 when 5,843 homes were listed and April 2011 when 5,847 homes were listed for sale on the region’s MLS®.

Last month’s new listing total was 6.7 per cent above the 10-year average for listings in Greater Vancouver for April. At 16,538, the total number of homes listed for sale on the region’s MLS® increased 8.5 per cent in April compared to last month and increased 16 per cent from this time last year.

“Recent activity has had a stabilizing effect on home prices at the regional level, although pricing can vary depending on area and property type,” Klein said “To best understand conditions within your area of interest, it’s important to do your homework and consult a local REALTOR®.”

The MLS® HPI benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver currently sits at $683,800, up 3.7 per cent compared to April 2011 and an increase of 2.8 per cent over the last three months. The benchmark price for all residential properties in the Lower Mainland is $612,000, which is a 3.4 per cent increase compared to April 2011 and a 2.6 per cent increase compared to three months ago.
 
Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in April 2012 reached 1,126, a decline of 19.7 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in April 2011, and a 17.8 per cent decrease from the 1,370 units sold in April 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 6.3 per cent from April 2011 to $1,064,800.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,190 in April 2012, a decline of 0.9 per cent compared to the 1,201 sales in April 2011, and a decrease of 22 per cent compared to the 1,526 sales in April 2010.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 1.1 per cent from April 2011 to $375,900.Townhome property sales in April 2012 totalled 483, a decline of 22.3 per cent compared to the 622 sales in April 2011, and a 21.6 per cent decrease from the 616 townhome properties sold in April 2010. The benchmark price of a townhome unit increased 1.7 per cent between April 2011 and 2012 to $487,300.

Full Report:

Cat: Vancouver Real Estate

Vancouver home prices fall for fifth consecutive month

OTTAWA — Homes prices edged down 0.2 per cent in February from the month before but were still 6.1 per cent higher than a year ago, according to a well-watched housing index.

The month-over-month decline was the third such retreat in the past four months for the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index, released Wednesday, which measures price changes for repeat sales of single-family homes.

In January, prices rose 0.1 per cent.

Teranet's report showed prices falling from the previous month in six of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed.

In Canada's two hottest real-estate markets, prices in Vancouver fell 0.3 per cent, the fifth consecutive decline, while prices in Toronto rose by just 0.1 per cent. On a yearly basis, however, Toronto prices were 10 per cent higher.

Nationally, prices were 6.1 per cent higher than a year ago. In January, prices were 6.5 per cent higher.

The data is likely to show up on the radar of Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, who has repeatedly warned that Canadians are piling on too much debt as they buy homes whose prices keep rising.

At a House of Commons finance committee meeting Tuesday, Carney warned that house prices in relation to income levels are now running 35 per cent above historical norms.

Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that seasonally adjusted sales in March rose 1.6 per cent from year-earlier levels, although the national average home price declined 0.5 per cent to to $369,677.

"It is a fact that according to CREA (the Canadian Real Estate Association) data for March, five of the 11 markets covered were rather favourable to sellers (Toronto, Hamilton, Winnipeg, Halifax and Quebec City). Overall, the Canadian market is nevertheless balanced," said National Bank senior economist Marc Pinsonneault.

Metropolitan area % change m/m / % change y/y

Calgary / -0.6 % / +1.3 %

Edmonton / -1.0 % / +1.1 %

Halifax / +0.4 % / +2.3 %

Hamilton / -0.8 % / +7.5 %

Montreal / +0.2 % / +4.4 %

Ottawa / -0.4 % / +4.6 %

Quebec / +1.6 % / +5.6 %

Toronto / 0.1 % / +10.0 %

Vancouver / -0.3 % / +6.2 %

Victoria / -1.1 % / -1.7 %

Winnipeg / +0.2 % / +8.2 %

National Composite / -0.2 % / +6.1 %

Source: Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index

Cat: Vancouver Real Estate

Metro Vancouver housing market remains balanced despite sharp sales drop: report

Local homes sales are in a balanced state despite the lowest April sales numbers since 2001, according to a report by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

“Although April sales were below what’s typical for the month, we continue to see, with a sales-to-active listing ratio of nearly 17 per cent, a balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply in our marketplace,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said in a statement.

“Recent activity has had a stabilizing effect on home prices at the regional level, although pricing can vary depending on area and property type.”

According to the monthly report, homes sales and listings have maintained a consistent pace in recent months, contributing to the balanced conditions.

However, the report noted that Metro Vancouver sales totalled 2,799 in April 2012, a 13.2-per-cent decline compared to the 3,225 sales in April 2011 and a decline of 2.6 per cent compared to the 2,874 sales in March 2012.

April sales were the lowest total for the month in the region since 2001 and 16.9 per cent below the 10-year April sales average of 3,369, the board said in a release.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 6,056 in April, a 3.6-per-cent increase compared to both March 2012 when 5,843 homes were listed and April 2011 when 5,847 homes were listed for sale.

Last month’s new listing total was 6.7 per cent above the 10-year average for listings in Greater Vancouver for April, the release said.

At 16,538, the total number of homes listed for sale increased 8.5 per cent in April compared to last month and 16 per cent above this time last year.

The benchmark price for all residential properties stood at $683,800, up 3.7 per cent compared to April 2011 and an increase of 2.8 per cent over the last three months.

Sales of detached properties in April 2012 reached 1,126, a decline of 19.7 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in April 2011, although the benchmark price for detached properties increased 6.3 per cent from April 2011 to $1,064,800.

The highest benchmark price in April for a detached home was Vancouver West at $2.27 million, followed by West Vancouver at $1.98 million.

The benchmark price of an apartment increased 1.1 per cent from April 2011 to $375,900, while the price of a townhome increased 1.7 per cent between April 2011 and 2012 to $487,300.

Meanwhile, the Fraser Valley's housing market also showed a drop in sales year-over-year, although not as sharp as in Metro Vancouver.

According to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, there were 1,435 sales processed in April, down five per cent from April 2011, but up slightly from 1,412 sales in March.

In April, the board added seven per cent more new listings compared to one year ago, up to 3,134 from 2,918 last year. That pushed the number of properties for sale to 10,312, the highest level since July 2010.

“To put it in perspective, in the last decade, April 2012 ranked second lowest for sales during that month, while new listings came in at the third highest, meaning it’s a good time to be shopping for a home in the Fraser Valley because selection has only been this extensive twice,” said board president Scott Olson in a statement.

According to the report, the benchmark price for a detached home in the Fraser Valley rose 5.3 per cent in the year, from $547,800 in April 2011 to $576,600 last month.

In April, the price of a townhouse was $318,400, up 1.9 per cent year-over-year, while the price of an apartment increased 0.8 per cent over the same period to $205,800.

Vancouver Real Estate Market Update by REBGV - March 2012

Increased selection helps maintain balance in Greater Vancouver housing market

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,874 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March 2012. This represents a 12.9 per cent increase compared to the 2,545 sales recorded in February 2012, a decline of 29.6 per cent compared to the 4,080 sales in March 2011 and an 8.4 per cent decline compared to the 3,137 home sales in March 2010.

March sales in Greater Vancouver were the second lowest total for the month in the region since 2002 and were 16.8 per cent below the 10-year sales average for the month.

“Home sellers have been more active than buyers the first few months of the year, but we continue to see a relative balance in the total supply of homes for sale and current demand in the marketplace,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,843 in March 2012. This represents a 5.2 per cent increase compared to February when 5,552 homes were listed and a 14 per cent decline compared to March 2011 when 6,797 homes were listed for sale on the region’s MLS®.

Last month’s new listing total was 4.5 per cent above the 10-year average for listings in Greater Vancouver for March.

At 15,236, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 8.4 per cent in March compared to last month and increased 16 per cent from this time last year.

“The total number of properties for sale in Greater Vancouver has increased each month since December, which means there’s more selection to choose from as we enter what’s traditionally the busiest season of the year in our market,” Klein said.

The MLS® HPI benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver currently sits at $679,000, up 5.3 per cent compared to March 2011 and an increase of 1.1 per cent compared to February 2012. The benchmark price for all residential properties in the Lower Mainland is $607,700, an increase of 4.8 per cent compared to March 2011.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in March 2012 reached 1,183, a decline of 34.1 per cent from the 1,795 detached sales recorded in March 2011, and an 11.5 per cent decrease from the 1,336 units sold in March 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 9.2 per cent from March 2011 to $1,056,400.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,191 in March 2012, a decline of 26.6 per cent compared to the 1,622 sales in March 2011, and a decrease of 4.9 per cent compared to the 1,252 sales in March 2010.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 2.2 per cent from March 2011 to $375,100.

Townhome property sales in March 2012 totalled 500, a decline of 24.6 per cent compared to the 663 sales in March 2011, and an 8.9 per cent decrease from the 549 townhome properties sold in March 2010. The benchmark price of a townhome unit increased 0.9 per cent between March 2011 and 2012 to $480,900.

Full Report:

Three new towers proposed for Rogers Arena vicinity - Vancouver New Development

Public consultations beginning this month on the development of towers around the Rogers Arena mean Vancouver's skyline could change in an area that has seen plenty of controversy.

Aquilini Development's proposal to build three new residential and commercial towers may upset some residents, but community activist Sandy Garossino supports the idea.

She believes the project could convince the B.C. Pavillion Corporation to abandon reviving the idea of building a mega-casino in favour of condo and office tower development in Yaletown.

"We're still concerned the casino idea is going to come back," Garassino said. "There is just such a strong feeling that this is a community; this is a residential neighrbourhood."
Public consultation on the three towers will begin on Feb. 20.

While the proposed changes to the skyline and the density of the neighbourhood make the project noteworthy, it's also the first to consider what would happen if city council approves demolishing one of the two viaducts in Vancouver.

Vancouver city councillor Geoff Meggs has long championed the contentious idea of removing the viaducts in favour of more public and residential development.

He says the long-term possibility of a fourth tower where the Dunsmuir Viaduct now runs fits with the city's vision for the area.

Cat: Vancouver Real Estate

No housing crash but a correction coming in Canada Housing Market

Cat: Vancouver Real Estate

Group-on Concept For Vancouver New Condos

Cat: Vancouver Real Estate

Overseas investors are buying properties in Vancouver

Rich Asians Buying B.C. Real Estate By Helicopter

Cat: Vancouver Real Estate

TD Financial Group's chief economist on New Low Mortgage Rates

Canada's big banks offered homebuyers a big fat incentive last week when, led by the Bank of Montreal, most dropped their five-year fixed mortgage rates to an unheard of 2.99 per cent. Like the failing Detroit auto industry of the early 2000s, with its zero per cent financing, no-money-down offers, Canada's banks appear willing to sacrifice some profit to keep the mortgage market booming. They're still making money—and certainly won't go bankrupt like two of the Big Three automakers did—but there is a similar whiff of desperation here at a time when the housing market appears to be cooling. Even in once hot markets like Calgary, prices have flattened.

These ultra low rates are bad news for Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, who've been warning Canadians for years to stop taking on record debt loads in this era of easy money. BMO's rate does come with a few catches, like a maximum 25-year payment period. But that doesn't mean buyers won't find themselves in trouble five years from now if rates rise.

Maybe the bigger concern is what happens if the housing market really does head south, and what that means for the Canadian economy. Over the past decade, construction was the second-fastest growing industry, creating one million jobs. It now accounts for an incredible one-tenth of Canada's GDP. Rising house prices have also made Canadians feel richer and insulated from economic troubles. As the U.S. showed, when housing is stripped from the equation, things can quickly go from bad to worse. Record-low mortgage rates might help keep the economy chugging along, but let's just hope we're not now running on fumes.

Cat: Canada Mortgage Rates

RBC Global Asset Management on lower 5-year mortgage rate to record low

Cat: Canada Mortgage Rates

Downtown Vancouver Small rental suites

The country's smallest rental suites are unveiled in Vancouver, but demonstrators disrupt the news conference, demanding access to housing.

A Vancouver developer has unveiled 30 "micro-lofts," which are under 300 square feet in size and are touted as the smallest self-contained furnished rental apartments in Canada.

They are in a newly renovated building at 18 West Hastings Street, across from Save-On Meats in Vancouver's Downtown Eastside and were displayed Monday. The suites, which range in size from 226 to 291 square feet, go for an average of $850 per month, including cable and internet.
"I was looking for an affordable living space ... and the suite was perfect," said Lia Cosco, one of the building's tenants. "The unique allocation of space and the design concepts make the small space very inviting and comfortable to live in."

While the suites may seem microscopic to some, the developer says the units maximize the square footage by using built-in pull-down wall beds, folding tables and compact appliances.
'This is a homelessness strategy'

The city, along with developers Reliance Properties and ITC Construction Group, are billing the suites as "an affordable and much needed non-subsidized rental housing opportunity in downtown Vancouver."

However, that description doesn't sit well with a handful of protesters who stormed the unveiling on Monday.

"I don't understand how this is part of an affordable housing strategy," said demonstrator Ivan Drury. "This is not an affordable housing strategy. This is a homelessness strategy."
The project is in a previously abandoned building, which had been operating as a single room occupancy (SRO) hotel. Protesters are calling on the city to stop converting former SROs into brand new apartments, which are being marketed at a significantly higher cost.
However, Coun. Kerry Jang defended the project, maintaining it does fit in with the city's affordable housing strategy.

"Mixed neighborhoods work best," he said. "It's because some people bring in the money, they live in these places [and] they end up subsidizing, keeping the businesses open."

Cat: Vancouver Real estate

Balanced real estate market prevailed through much of 2011

REBGV Stats December 2011

The 2011 Greater Vancouver housing market began with heightened demand in regional hot spots and concluded with greater balance between seller supply and buyer demand.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that total sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in 2011 reached 32,390, a 5.9 per cent increase from the 30,595 sales recorded in 2010, and a 9.2 per cent decrease from the 35,669 residential sales in 2009. Last year’s home sale total was 6.3 per cent below the ten-year average for annual Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales in the region.

The number of residential properties listed for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver increased 2.7 per cent in 2011 to 59,549 compared to the 58,009 properties listed in 2010. Looking back further, last year’s total represents a 12.8 per cent increase compared to the 52,869 residential properties listed in 2009. Last year’s listing total was 11.1 per cent above the ten-year average for annual Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) property listings in the region.

“It was a relatively balanced year for the real estate market in Greater Vancouver with listing totals slightly above historical norms and sale numbers slightly below,” Rosario Setticasi, REBGV president said.

Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,658 in December 2011, a decrease of 12.7 per cent from the 1,899 sales recorded in December 2010 and a 29.7 per cent decline compared to November 2011 when 2,360 home sales occurred.

More broadly, last month’s residential sales represent a 34.1 per cent decrease over the 2,515 residential sales in December 2009, a 79.4 per cent increase compared to December 2008’s 924 sales, and a 12.6 per cent decrease compared to the 1,897 sales in December 2007.

The overall residential benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for Greater Vancouver increased 7.6 per cent to $621,674 between Decembers 2010 and 2011. However, prices have decreased 1.5 per cent since hitting a peak of $630,921 in June 2011.

“Our market remained in a balanced state for most of the year, although higher levels of demand for detached properties in the region’s largest communities caused prices in certain areas to rise higher than others,” Setticasi said. “For example, the benchmark price of a single-family detached home experienced double-digit increases in nine areas within the region over the last 12 months.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,629 in December 2011. This represents a 4.1 per cent decline compared to the 1,699 units listed in December 2010 and a 49.4 per cent decline compared to November 2011 when 3,222 properties were listed.

Sales of detached properties in December 2011 reached 630, a decrease of 18.1 per cent from the 769 detached sales recorded in December 2010, and a 30.2 per cent decrease from the 902 units sold in December 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.2 per cent from December 2010 to $887,471.

Sales of apartment properties reached 774 in December 2011, a decline of 4.6 per cent compared to the 811 sales in December 2010, and a decrease of 32.9 per cent compared to the 1,154 sales in December 2009.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 3.7 per cent from December 2010 to $401,396.

Attached property sales in December 2011 totalled 254, a decline of 20.4 per cent compared to the 319 sales in December 2010, and a 44.7 per cent decrease from the 459 attached properties sold in December 2009. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 4.2 per cent between December 2010 and 2011 to $511,499.

Below is the complete report:

Car: Vancouver Real Estate

B.C. Assessment 2012

B.C. Assessment released its data on the value of homes in the province on Tuesday. While some regions saw values skyrocket, others dropped. Take a look to see how your property's value (and your taxes) will jump this year.

List ranked in order from largest hike to biggest drop in values:

1. Vancouver - Up 16.42%

2. Richmond-Delta - Up 12.83%

3. North Fraser (Burnaby, Coquitlam, etc.) - Up 8.45%

4. Surrey-White Rock - Up 7.83%

5. Peace River - Up 7.44%

6. North Shore-Squamish Valley - Up 6.48%

7. Northwest B.C. (Prince Rupert, Terrace, Kitimat) - Up 4.74%

8. Prince George - Up 2.36%

9. Fraser Valley - Up 1.67%

10. Nelson/Trail - Up 1.08%

11. Cariboo - Up 0.32%

12. Central Vancouver Island (Nanaimo) - Down 0.06%

13. Kamloops - Down 0.19%

14. Capital (Greater Victoria) - Down 0.23%

15. Courtenay - Down 0.72%

16. Penticton - Down 1.2%

17. East Kootenay - Down 1.71%

18. Kelowna - Down 1.81%

19. Vernon - Down 3.1%

Cat: BC Real Estate

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKETS:
A YEAR IN REVIEW AND A LOOK AHEAD

Gradual unwinding of the over-valuation in house prices across the country

Highlights

• As the year draws to a close, we conclude that the Canadian housing market put forth a respectable showing. Annual price gains are estimated at 7.5% in 2011 and sales’ growth ought to come in positive as well, but at a much more modest pace of 2.2%.
• Behind the headline figure, we have seen gains in prices and sales activity decelerate in recent months. Some of the underlying factors include tighter insured mortgage financing rules and weakened confidence related to the stability of the economic recovery. Helping cushion the impact of these negative forces has been the persistence of low mortgage rates.
• We believe that the average Canadian home price is over-valued by roughly 10%. Metrics like price to income, price to rent, and affordability all support this conclusion. We expect that the price excess will gradually unwind over the next two years in light of a softening in employment conditions in 2012 followed by higher interest rates in 2013.
• In contrast to the resale market, starts continue to come in well above expectations. The strength witnessed over the last few years has been driven exclusively by the multi-residential category. Consistent with weaker resale markets, we expect new starts to trend toward 170,000-180,000 units in the 2012-13 period.
• In addition to our national perspective, we provide an in-depth forecast of twelve major markets. While no urban center will be immune to the macroeconomic and interest rate headwinds, Calgary and Edmonton are likely to do better than the rest. By contrast, a larger-than-average price and sales correction looks to be in store for both Toronto and Vancouver.

Homebuyers came out in the early part of 2011 to take advantage of record-low interest rates and to beat out changes to new insured mortgage financing rules. With Canadians bringing forward their purchases and national job gains tapering off since the autumn, the past few months have recorded more modest price and sales gains. In all, 2011 put forth a very respectable showing with price appreciation clocking in at an estimated 7.5% and sales growth also positive, but at a more modest 2.2%. At around 190,000 units, housing starts also continued to come in above long-run averages.

Looking ahead, we anticipate a tug-of-war action to take hold in the Canadian real estate market.  At one of the rope is the magnetism of low interest rates; at the other end are subdued prospects for economic, income and employment growth. Ultimately, we expect the economic side of the equation to win out over the near-term. In particular, the first half of 2012 is likely to be characterized by ongoing confidence-sapping events in Europe, global financial turbulence and slowing world economic growth.

While housing activity is expected to do somewhat better in the second half of the year, as external clouds start to dissipate, rising Canadian interest rates in 2013 should erect the next road block in the way of housing markets. Overall, we expect sales to record annual average declines of 2.4% and 3.5% in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Prices are poised to suffer a similar fate – annual average declines of 1.9% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013. Starts should dip to an average 170,000 to 180,000 units in 2012-13. Collectively, these adjustments will gradually erase the over-valuation in the marketplace.

While no urban center will be immune from economic volatility and higher prevailing interest rates, some regions are expected to do better than others over the next two years. Among the twelve major markets profiled in this report, Calgary and Edmonton ought to lead the pack. Solid economic fundamentals and the absence of a recent run-up in prices support our call. Toronto and Vancouver do not appear to be as lucky – we have them experiencing a greater-than-average correction in both sales and prices over the next two years.

Canada’s housing market defies the odds in 2011

In 2011, the national housing market turned in a respectable performance despite some notable hurdles. In the spring, the federal government responded to growing signs of excessive household indebtedness by announcing a further tightening in the rules surrounding insured mortgages.

In order to beat this announced change, we suspect that many homebuyers brought forward their purchases earlier in the year. In the summer, a combination of concerns about European sovereign debt, a U.S. government credit rating downgrade and worries about the global recovery led to increased uncertainty. Businesses have responded by reducing hiring in Canada since the autumn. Yet, home sales are headed for their seventh gain in ten years; prices are on tap to see their ninth gain in ten years. Still, a closer look at the data shows that activity in most of Canada’s major markets has moved past its peak and has since landed softly.

Average residential prices have also been skewed by outsized strength in Vancouver and to a lesser extent, Toronto. If we were to exclude these two major markets, the price and resale activity gains would be much more muted than the headline number would suggest.

In the new home market, starts have fallen from their peak levels of 229,000 recorded in 2007. But at an estimated 192,000 new starts in 2011, readings continue to remain well above demographic fundamentals, which we calculate to be 180,000 units. Similar to the resale side of the story, the national numbers have been skewed disproportionately by strong performances in large urban markets, notably Toronto. If we were to exclude Toronto from the national tally, total starts would have declined significantly in 2011.

Metrics point to over-valuation embedded in home
prices today

As we recast our focus on where the housing market is headed, there has been considerable attention given to the extent of over-valuation in Canadian home prices. There is no definitive measure that one can point to quantify the degree of excess (with absolute certainty) imbedded in average residential prices in Canada today. Each measure carries with it some underlying concern about the conclusions that can be made. For example, if we use the average price-torrent ratio as a benchmark, it would tell us that homes are over-inflated by as much as 75% relative to the long-run average. However, the ratio inherently ignores the impact of changing mortgage rates, the presence of provincial rent control measures, and a potential divergence in quality between owned and rental accommodation.

Taking a look at just real home prices would lead to a conclusion that houses are priced more than 60% higher than the long-run average. Still, historical prices do not factor in key structural changes over time, such as lower trend mortgage rates, longer amortization periods, rising land values, transit development nearby, improved home quality and rising incomes. The price-to-income measure attempts to take income movements into consideration, but still does not capture some of the other factors previously presented. Based on this measure, prices are 44% over-valued. A more defensible measure assumes that total housing costs relative to income eventually revert back to a long term average. If we use this measure and assume a return to more normal levels of interest rates, the degree of overvaluation would be around 10-15%. Given the behavior of sales and price trends in recent years – one that does not share bubble-like characteristics such as those in the U.S. pre-2007 – we are comfortable with this estimate of national price over-valuation.

Less supportive factors on tap for housing

When we look ahead to our 2012-13 forecast period, we see that the headwinds facing both supply and demand will increase in intensity. In turn, we anticipate resale price froth to gradually evaporate leaving the market in a more balanced position relative to where it stands today. More specifically, we expect both sales and prices to record annual average declines in both 2012 and 2013, with the latter year expected to record the brunt of the hit. Several factors support our forecasts, which we briefly delve into next.

Modest economic, income and employment growth over
short-term

Real GDP growth in Canada is estimated at a solid 2.4% in 2011. However, storm clouds will increasingly hang over our small open economy during the first half of 2012. Much of the risk surrounds the European sovereign debt crisis and the failure of politicians to take decisive action so far to pour water over the flame. The base case scenario embedded in our forecast includes a recession within Europe, coming to a climax in early 2012 when borrowing pressures and requirements will be heightened. Financial market volatility and a global economic slowdown will likely play out as a result. In this context and given our export-based economy, real GDP growth is projected to slow to a minimal 1% on average during the first half of 2012. With these headline numbers, the national unemployment rate is expected to increase from 7.3% to 7.7% by the middle of next year.

National employment growth is also poised to be sub-1.0%, on a quarterly basis, during the first half of the year, while gains in after-tax incomes will be significantly restrained.

Prices and sales tend to be negatively correlated with financial market volatility and job and economic uncertainty – a house is too big an asset for most families to jump into when job security is in question and financial portfolios are vulnerable to sizeable swings in total value. As a consequence, resale prices and sales are expected to decline during the first half of 2012, before the turbulence eases in the months thereafter. In our forecast, we make the explicit assumption that – faced with a mounting crisis – leaders in Europe ultimately take bold action to address the situation, thus delivering benefits to financial markets and economies around the world. As such, Canada’s economy and job market is likely to regain traction in the second half of 2012 and into 2013, with real GDP growth rebounding to above 2.0%.

At the regional level, we believe the resource-based provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador will continue to carry the best economic prospects over the 2012-13 period. The manufacturing-heavy regions of Ontario, Québec and Manitoba are expected to come in close to the national average. Last but not least, the Maritime provinces should see sub-par numbers over the next two years, with Nova Scotia being the as shipbuilding work gets underway.

Below is the full report:

Cat: Canada Real Estate

HST change likely to delay new-home sales in BC until its elimination

Plans to remove the HST and return to a provincial sales tax mixed with the Goods and Services Tax will probably cause some potential buyers of new homes in British Columbia to delay purchases until 2013, Central 1 Credit Union forecasts.

In a news release Thursday, Central 1 economist Bryan Yu said: "People looking at new homes priced over $525,000 may very well wait until the tax changes lower the 12 per cent hit they face."

The HST added provincial tax to new housing on top of GST and $525,000 was the upper limit for a rebate program intended to add no additional tax on homes.

Yu is forecasting that B.C.'s total home sales through the Multiple Listing Service will reach 88,200 units by the end of this year, which is down one per cent from 2010's sales mark.

However, while resale home transactions are forecast to end the year 4.7 per cent ahead of 2010, new home transactions will lag by 26 per cent.

While sales will remain soft, the median price will rise 6.8 per cent to $417,000, Yu said.

"The real estate market will remain stable for the next couple years, weighed down by global economic issues, moderate employment and population growth and changes to mortgage insurance rules," Yu said.

Central 1 forecasts that next year total home sales are expected to increase by about 3.4 per cent, driven by higher new home sales. The resale of existing homes will decline.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Real Estate Association released a report Thursday showing that the sale of existing homes across Canada declined 0.5 per cent in August.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales totalled to 37,177 units during the month, down from 37,378 in the previous month, the industry group said. However, sales were still up 15.8 per cent from August 2010, on a non-adjusted basis.

The national average home price of $349,916 in August, on a non-adjusted basis, was up 7.7 per cent from a year earlier.

"[Economic] headwinds will likely persist until, and indeed after, fiscal quagmires in the U.S. and Europe are resolved. In the meantime, the Bank of Canada will have ample reason to delay raising interest rates further, which is supportive for the Canadian housing market."

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Active home sellers bring greater selection to the Greater Vancouver housing market.

While the balance between home buyer and seller activity remains in an equilibrium range in the Greater Vancouver housing market, last month’s home sale total was below the 10-year average for July.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties on the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) reached 2,571 in July, a 14 per cent increase compared to the 2,255 sales in July 2010 and a 21.2 per cent decline compared to the 3,262 sales in June 2011.

“We’re seeing less multiple offer situations in the market today compared to the last few months, but our members tell us that homes priced competitively continue to sell at a relatively swift pace,” Rosario Setticasi, REBGV president said. “It’s taking, on average, 41 days to sell a property in the region, which is unchanged from June of this year.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,097 in July. This represents a 23.2 per cent increase compared to July 2010 when 4,138 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 12 per cent decline compared to the 5,793 new listings reported in June 2011.

Last month’s new listing total was 8.6 per cent higher than the 10-year average for July, while residential sales were 17.3 per cent below the ten-year average for sales in July.

At 15,226, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 0.8 per cent in July compared to last month and declined 7.3 per cent from this time last year.

“The number of homes listed for sale in the region has increased each month since the start of the year, which is giving buyers more selection to choose from and more time to make decisions,” Rosario Setticasi, REBGV president said.

The MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 9.2 per cent to $630,251 in July 2011 from $577,074 in July 2010.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in July 2011 reached 1,099, an increase of 21 per cent from the 908 detached sales recorded in July 2010, and an 31.9 per cent decrease from the 1,614 units sold in July 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 13.3 per cent from July 2010 to $898,886.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,040 in July 2011, a 6.2 per cent increase compared to the 979 sales in July 2010, and a decrease of 39.1 per cent compared to the 1,708 sales in July 2009. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 4.5 per cent from July 2010 to $405,306.

Attached property sales in July 2011 totalled 432, a 17.4 per cent increase compared to the 368 sales in July 2010, and a 45.5 per cent decrease from the 792 attached properties sold in July 2009. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 6.9 per cent between July 2010 and 2011 to $524,909.

Cat: Vancouver Real Estate

First Fully Automated Parking in North America – Jameson House (838 W HASTINGS ST)

Simply pull into the secure transfer section, lock your vehicle and go. Your car will be whisked away safely while you entre the main elevator. When you’re ready to depart, your vehicle will be quickly returned to you.

Cat: Vancouver Real Estate ( Jameson House )

Condo rebound pushes new-home construction higher

Metro Vancouver builders have returned to building condominiums in a big enough way to push up the region’s overall housing starts this year while the number of single-family homes is declining, according to new numbers from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

The pace of new-home construction in June declined from an unexpected frenzy of starts in May, according to Robyn Adamache, a Canada Mortgage and Housing analyst in Vancouver. However, the 8,472 total housing starts recorded in Metro Vancouver at the end of June represented a 23-per-cent increase from the same period of 2010.

Of those starts, 6,813 were multi-family homes — condominiums and townhouses — which was a 51-per-cent increase from starts during the same period of 2010. On the other hand, the 1,659 single-family-home starts for the same period represented a 30-per-cent decline.

Adamache said the post-recession recovery in housing construction began a year ago in single-family home building, but this year’s increase in multi-family construction reflects the confidence developers have that the economic recovery is on more solid ground.

“Builders are feeling more confident to start those larger projects now on the multi-family side,” Adamache said Monday. “They’re feeling like it’s not just a short-term change in the economy and things are really settling down.”

Overall, Adamache added that the factors that drive new-home construction — immigration, an improving job market and continuing low mortgage rates — are still strong enough to support the construction underway.

Adamache said Metro Vancouver saw a spike in the pace of housing construction in May that skewed provincial results, but that was likely due to the nature of stronger multi-family construction.

“[Multi-family] construction is very volatile,” she said. “It makes it look like things are swinging a lot from month to month when it really could be the difference of one or two projects [starting in a given month] if they are very large.”

As of the end of June, Adamache said builders around Metro Vancouver were on pace to start work on 15,700 new housing units by the end of 2011, which is close to Canada Mortgage and Housing’s forecast of 16,000.

The biggest increases in multi-family construction have come in Richmond and Surrey with some of the activity pushed along by same influence of immigrant and offshore purchasing that is affecting the overall real estate market.

Richmond recorded 1,185 multi-family housing starts in the first half of 2011 versus 458 for the first half of 2010, and total starts of 1,315 in 2011 compared with 595 in 2010.

Across B.C., the province’s urban centres saw 11,405 new-home starts in the first half of 2011, which was fractionally lower than the 11,475 in the same period of 2010.

Nationwide, home construction rose more than expected in June, led by a jump in single-unit activity, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing.

Nationally, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts was 197,400 units last month, up 1.7 per cent from a revised 194,100 units in May, CMHC said. The April figure was also revised to 194,100 units.

Economists had expected between 184,000 and 185,000 starts in June.

“Housing starts increased in June due to an increase in single and multiple starts in Ontario,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre.

“The revised numbers show that housing starts have been above their trend line since March,” according to Bob Dugan, Canada Mortgage and Housing’s chief economist. “However, we expect housing starts to move back toward levels consistent with demographic fundamentals in the near term.”

Cat: Vancouver Real Estate ( GW7BAVTA5RSZ )

West Vancouver Evelyn project up for grabs

Troubled development went into receivership in December, records show

West Vancouver's troubled Evelyn development is up for sale.

A Supreme Court order to place the property into receivership was made in December after the developer, Millennium Evelyn Properties Ltd., defaulted on a $72 million mortgage. Now creditors are awaiting its sale to collect their debts. That court decision had been sealed until earlier this week.

The Sentinel Hill development has been appraised at $100 million, but David Bowra, president of the Bowra Group, the newly appointed receiver for the property, said he's not sure how much it will actually sell for.

"I have no idea what it's worth; it's worth what someone will pay for it," said Bowra.

"I mean, it's a big chunk of real estate and it's a lot of money. There are probably a fairly limited number of people who could acquire a piece of property like that. And it's not just acquiring the property, it's developing it as well."

The City of Vancouver, which is owed money from Millennium Development Corp.'s Olympic Village project, is listed as one of the charge holders against Evelyn, but Bowra couldn't confirm whether or not the city will receive any money.

"I don't know if they're actually owed money or if their mortgage has been assigned, but . . . there are a lot of other people who would have to get paid ahead of them," he said.

As for the buyers who have pre-purchased 31 of Evelyn's 109 condominium units, their money is safe in a lawyers' trust, according to Bowra. And while they're free to get it back, most of them appear to want to see the project through, he said.

"The vast majority . . . are still very interested in buying a unit in the development; I think the number I heard was 80 per cent," he said.

"I'd like to think in the next 30 to 60 days, we'll have some definitive news for them, one way or another."

The District of West Vancouver is also eager to see the long-awaited project get rolling.

"I think the receiver, his job will be to deal with the property very quickly, as quickly as possible. So that, I would say, bodes well for moving ahead," said Geri Boyle, manager of community planning for the municipality.

"The community worked hard to come up with an agreement working with a developer and I think they've been disappointed to see it sit as sort of a construction site for so long."

In response to Millennium's claims that municipal approvals took longer to achieve than anticipated and "land lenders lost patience with the long process," Boyle partially agreed.

"It was a complicated process, certainly getting through the zoning probably took longer than they anticipated," she said.

No building permits have been issued to date, but if a new developer were to buy the property they could proceed under the approved master plan.

Millennium Development Corp. is behind both the Evelyn Drive project and the Olympic Village development, which is also in receivership. The latter first ran into problems when its financial backer, Fortress Investment Group, pulled out in 2008 and was replaced by the City of Vancouver. The city has yet to recover its $740-million loan.

© Copyright (c) North Shore News

Cat: West Vancouver Real Estate

More Canadians were on move in 2010 and they were mostly headed West

TORONTO - A new report from the TD Bank suggests that Canadians are taking the phrase "Go West, young man" seriously.

More Canadians were on the move last year as a percentage of the population than any year since 1998, the bank says.

And most were headed West to take advantage of better job prospects and higher standards of living.

The analysis shows 337,000 Canadians migrated within the country's border's last year, 45,000 more than in 2009. The level represents about one per cent of the total population, the highest since 1998.

Except for New Brunswick, only Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia experienced a net inflow of people last year.

And the report predicts that westward bound migration will continue over the next two years, although not up to the levels seen during the resource boom prior to the recession.

In relative terms, Manitoba and Prince Edward Island are losing the most people. Ontario and Quebec will continue to keep shedding numbers, but by a tiny fraction relative to their populations, the bank said.